The long‑whispered “debasement trade” is unfolding. After years of squeeze theories and sidelined chatter, November’s price action shows silver finally following gold, and then some. Key developments this week:
- CME Group outage: Trading across several markets was briefly disrupted by a CME platform outage, adding short‑term volatility to metals and energy markets.
- Silver price surge: COMEX silver touched intra‑day record levels this week, rallying into the mid‑$50s/oz (intraday prints above $54; spikes near $55 reported). That’s roughly a +$50–$56/oz move from lows earlier this year on month/week closes in November.
- Demand from India & Turkey: Physical demand intensified, large reported exports/imports and shipments from China and into bullion hubs (including notable flows to India and Turkey) tightened available metal in October, supporting prices.
- Gold–silver ratio: The spot gold/silver ratio compressed toward ~75, reflecting silver’s stronger upside relative to gold.
- Fundamentals & sentiment: Rising rate‑cut expectations, a softer dollar backdrop, Chinese stockpile withdrawals and physical tightness combined to amplify silver’s upside momentum. Technical indicators (daily MACD and momentum measures) have been pointing higher without a clear overbought signal in the short term.
What this means for bulls
- Leverage to upside: Historically, when silver rallies it can outpace gold—current dynamics (physical tightness + macro easing bets) create a favorable setup for outsized moves.
- Volatility caveat: Exchange outages and swift flows into physical markets can produce abrupt price swings and liquidity gaps—manage risk accordingly.
- Watchlist: COMEX/MCX price action, open interest, Chinese exports/stockpile reports, India/Turkey imports, and Fed rate‑cut odds.
Short take: November’s action looks like the start of the debasement trade going from theory to price, silver’s rally is real, pronounced, and driven by both macro and physical forces.
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