Debasement Trade

The long‑whispered “debasement trade” is unfolding. After years of squeeze theories and sidelined chatter, November’s price action shows silver finally following gold, and then some. Key developments this week:

• CME Group outage: Trading across several markets was briefly disrupted by a CME platform outage, adding short‑term volatility to metals and energy markets.
• Silver price surge: COMEX silver touched intra‑day record levels this week, rallying into the mid‑$50s/oz (intraday prints above $54; spikes near $55 reported). That’s roughly a +$50–$56/oz move from lows earlier this year on month/week closes in November.
• Demand from India & Turkey: Physical demand intensified, large reported exports/imports and shipments from China and into bullion hubs (including notable flows to India and Turkey) tightened available metal in October, supporting prices.
• Gold–silver ratio: The spot gold/silver ratio compressed toward ~75, reflecting silver’s stronger upside relative to gold.
• Fundamentals & sentiment: Rising rate‑cut expectations, a softer dollar backdrop, Chinese stockpile withdrawals and physical tightness combined to amplify silver’s upside momentum. Technical indicators (daily MACD and momentum measures) have been pointing higher without a clear overbought signal in the short term.

What this means for bulls

• Leverage to upside: Historically, when silver rallies it can outpace gold—current dynamics (physical tightness + macro easing bets) create a favorable setup for outsized moves.
• Volatility caveat: Exchange outages and swift flows into physical markets can produce abrupt price swings and liquidity gaps—manage risk accordingly.
• Watchlist: COMEX/MCX price action, open interest, Chinese exports/stockpile reports, India/Turkey imports, and Fed rate‑cut odds.

Short take: November’s action looks like the start of the debasement trade going from theory to price, silver’s rally is real, pronounced, and driven by both macro and physical forces.